Inherent to accepting black swans is accepting that you will never be able to predict them. We can only predict pseudo-random events, and only when we know the genesis of the pseudo-randomness. We’ve got all sorts of models which are designed to predict random events, but truly random events can’t be predicted – by definition. It’s not just difficult to predict, it’s impossible to predict. Predicting the UnpredictableĪ black swan, as Taleb defines it, is an unpredictable event. However, before I could get to hunting black swans, I had to understand more about them. I want to bring the positive impacts of the highly improbable to my world. I wanted to go looking for black swans that I might be able to domesticate. I wanted to learn more so that I could go black swan hunting. Those impacts can be positive or negative. So The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is about the random events that aren’t probable, but have a major impact on the world – or your world. Most of the time black swans are what the subtitle says: highly improbable. Instead, I’ve become intrigued by interesting events. I’ll assure you, my reading hasn’t taken a turn into classical dancing. As I began reading The Black Swan, my wife wondered if the black swan was a dancer in swan lake.
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